Simulation of the distribution pattern of Sassafras tzumu and changes in habitat based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt
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摘要: 气候变化是影响物种分布和多样性的主要原因之一，越来越受到人们的关注。本研究从世界气候网站下载了19个气候因子数据，通过网上查阅和实地考察获取檫木（Sassafras tzumu Hemsl.）分布数据共233个，使用ArcGIS 10.2和MaxEnt 3.3.2对檫木不同时期分布格局进行模拟，推测檫木末次冰期和2070年分布格局。研究结果显示，檫木当前分布主要受最干季度降水量、最湿月降水量、温度季节变化和最湿季度平均温度影响。此外，横断山脉、武夷山、天目山和大巴山周边是檫木末次冰期的4个主要分布地区。对当前和2070年模拟结果表明，檫木的适生区整体缩小并向北方移动。表明随着当前气候变化及工业快速发展，在短短几十年时间内对檫木分布格局的影响与过去两万年的相当。Abstract: Climate change is one of the main factors affecting the distribution and diversity of species and is attracting increasing attention. We used 19 climate factors downloaded from the World Climate Website, with 233 distribution samples of Sassafras tzumu Hemsl. obtained through online review and field surveys. Distribution patterns and changes in habitat during different periods were calculated using ArcGIS 10.2 and MaxEnt 3.3.2. Results indicate that the current distribution of S. tzumu is mainly affected by precipitation of the driest month and precipitation of the wettest month, with temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the wettest quarter also major influencing factors. In addition, the Hengduan Mountains, Wuyi Mountain, Tianmu Mountain, and Daba Mountain are the major distribution areas of S. tzumu. Current and future (2070) simulation results show that suitable S. tzumu habitat for the overall area is shrinking and moving northwards. With current climate change and industrial development, the distribution pattern of S. tzumu in several decades will be equivalent to that of the past 20 000 years.
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Keywords:
- Sassafras tzumu /
- Species distribution models /
- Niche /
- Biological climate
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