Prediction of potential distribution of <i>Cupressus gigantea</i> W. C. Cheng &amp; L. K. Fu in China based on optimized MaxEnt modeling

Zeng Weiying; Wang Dezhi; Ye Chen; Gong Yu; Wang Yuxi; Zhang Quanfa

doi:10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.24033

Plant Science Journal > 2025 > 43(1): 52-62. > DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.24033 CSTR: 32231.14.PSJ.2095-0837.24033

Zeng WY，Wang DZ，Ye C，Gong Y，Wang YX，Zhang QF. Prediction of potential distribution of Cupressus gigantea W. C. Cheng & L. K. Fu in China based on optimized MaxEnt modeling[J]. Plant Science Journal，2025，43（1）：52−62. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.24033

Citation:

PDF (1696 KB)

Prediction of potential distribution of Cupressus gigantea W. C. Cheng & L. K. Fu in China based on optimized MaxEnt modeling

Zeng Weiying^{1, 2,},
Wang Dezhi^{2, 3, ,},
Ye Chen^{2, 3},
Gong Yu^{2, 3},
Wang Yuxi⁴,
Zhang Quanfa^{2, 3}

1.
School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa 850000, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3.
University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China
4.
POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, Chengdu 611130, China

More Information

Received Date: April 05, 2024
Accepted Date: May 16, 2024

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Cupressus gigantea W. C. Cheng & L. K. Fu, a tree species endemic to Tibet and classified as a national first-class protected species in China, requires clear delineation of its potential suitable distribution for effective conservation, introduction, and breeding programs. This study established the MaxEnt model, using the “kuenm” R package to optimize model parameters, to predict the potential distribution of C. gigantea across China. Environmental variables influencing distribution were analyzed through percent contribution and Jackknife tests. The optimized model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy and reduced complexity compared to the default parameter model. Key factors influencing the distribution of C. gigantea included distance from rivers, temperature seasonality, isothermality, slope, and precipitation during the coldest quarter. Predicted suitable distribution areas were primarily located in Tibet and Sichuan, with the cities of Nyingchi, Lhoka, Lhasa, and Rikaze in Tibet encompassing the entirety of moderately suitable (2 298 km²) and highly suitable areas (746 km²). The high suitability area was exclusively distributed in Nyingchi (563 km²) and Lhoka (183 km²), representing about 0.062% of the total area of Tibet. The corridor between Lang County and Milin County emerged as the core habitat for C. gigantea, underscoring the need to prioritize conservation efforts in this critical region.
- Cupressus gigantea,
- Habitat,
- Potential distribution,
- MaxEnt,
- Tibet

FullText(HTML)

References (46)

References

[1]	郑万钧,傅立国,诚静容. 中国裸子植物[J]. 中国科学院大学学报,1975,13(4):56−123.
[2]	司琳杰. 西藏珍稀植物巨柏的研究发展概论[J]. 绿色科技,2015(5):45−47. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-9944.2015.05.021
[3]	郑维列,薛会英,罗大庆,王景升,罗建. 巨柏种群的生态地理分布与群落学特征[J]. 林业科学,2007,43(12):8−15. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7488.2007.12.002 Zheng WL,Xue HY,Luo DQ,Wang JS,Luo J. Eco-geographic distribution and coenology characteristics of Cupressus gigantea[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2007,43(12):8−15. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7488.2007.12.002
[4]	尹金迁,赵垦田. 西藏高原巨柏的研究进展与展望[J]. 林业与环境科学,2019,35(2):116−122. Yin JQ,Zhao KT. Research history and prospect of Cupressus gigantean in Tibetan Plateau[J]. Forestry and Environmental Science,2019,35(2):116−122.
[5]	陈端. 西藏巨柏的研究现状与前景[J]. 西藏科技,1995(2):7−11.
[6]	李永霞. 珍稀濒危树种巨柏天然更新研究[D]. 拉萨:西藏大学,2023:3−4.
[7]	Warren DL,Seifert SN. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent:the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria[J]. Ecol Appl,2011,21(2):335−342. doi: 10.1890/10-1171.1
[8]	Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecol Model,2006,190(3-4):231−259. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
[9]	邢丁亮,郝占庆. 最大熵原理及其在生态学研究中的应用[J]. 生物多样性,2011,19(3):295−302. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2011.08318 Xing DL,Hao ZQ. The principle of maximum entropy and its applications in ecology[J]. Biodiversity Science,2011,19(3):295−302. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2011.08318
[10]	Elith J,Graham CH,Anderson RP,Dudík M,Ferrier S,et al. Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data[J]. Ecography,2006,29(2):129−151. doi: 10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x
[11]	蔡静芸,张明明,粟海军,张海波. 生态位模型在物种生境选择中的应用研究[J]. 经济动物学报,2014,18(1):47−52,58. Cai JY,Zhang MM,Su HJ,Zhang HB. Application of ecological niche models for selection of species habitat[J]. Journal of Economic Animal,2014,18(1):47−52,58.
[12]	Mahmoodi S,Heydari M,Ahmadi K,Khwarahm NR,Karami O,et al. The current and future potential geographical distribution of Nepeta crispa Willd.,an endemic,rare and threatened aromatic plant of Iran:implications for ecological conservation and restoration[J]. Ecol Indic,2022,137:108752.
[13]	Yang JT,Huang Y,Jiang X,Chen H,Liu M,Wang RL. Potential geographical distribution of the edangred plant Isoetes under human activities using MaxEnt and GARP[J]. Glob Ecol Conserv,2022,38:e02186.
[14]	Yang H,Li JL,Milne RI,Tao WJ,Wang Y,et al. Genomic insights into the genotype–environment mismatch and conservation units of a Qinghai–Tibet Plateau endemic cypress under climate change[J]. Evol Appl,2022,15(6):919−933. doi: 10.1111/eva.13377
[15]	Lei P,Liu Z,Li JX,Jin GZ,Xu LP,et al. Integration of the physiology,transcriptome and proteome reveals the molecular mechanism of drought tolerance in Cupressus gigantea[J]. Forests,2022,13(3):401. doi: 10.3390/f13030401
[16]	杨刚刚,郝海霞,岳艳鹏,周继华,来利明,郑元润. 雅鲁藏布江巨柏分布区植物群落特点、分布与环境解释[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2023,59(1):156−162. doi: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022125 Yang GG,Hao HX,Yue YP,Zhou JH,Lai LM,Zheng YR. Community characteristics,distribution and environment interpretation of Cupressus gigantea along Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science),2023,59(1):156−162. doi: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022125
[17]	姚祺. 巨柏移植前生长调控的研究[D]. 林芝:西藏大学农牧学院,2021:32−57.
[18]	常馨月. 巨柏生殖特征及发育机制研究[D]. 拉萨:西藏大学,2023:75−131.
[19]	姚祺,李佶芸,赵垦田. 基于MaxEnt模型的巨柏青藏高原生态适宜性研究[J]. 高原农业,2021,5(2):109−114. Yao Q,Li JY,Zhao KT. Research on ecological suitability of giant cypress on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on MaxEnt model[J]. Journal of Plateau Agriculture,2021,5(2):109−114.
[20]	Brown JL. SDMtoolbox:a python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic,biogeographic and species distribution model analyses[J]. Methods Ecol Evol,2014,5(7):694−700. doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12200
[21]	王运生. 生态位模型在外来入侵物种风险评估中的应用研究[D]. 长沙:湖南农业大学,2007:4,26−27.
[22]	Li XP,Liu X,Kraus F,Tingley R,Li YM. Risk of biological invasions is concentrated in biodiversity hotspots[J]. Front Ecol Environ,2016,14(8):411−417. doi: 10.1002/fee.1321
[23]	曹倩,高庆波,郭万军,张毓,王智华,等. 基于MaxEnt模拟人类活动与环境因子对青藏高原特有植物祁连獐牙菜潜在分布的影响[J]. 植物科学学报,2021,39(1):22−31. Cao Q,Gao QB,Guo WJ,Zhang Y,Wang ZH,et al. Impacts of human activities and environmental factors on potential distribution of Swertia przewalskii Pissjauk. ,an endemic plant in Qing-Tibetan Plateau,using MaxEnt[J]. Plant Science Journal,2021,39(1):22−31.
[24]	Lehner B,Grill G. Global river hydrography and network routing:baseline data and new approaches to study the world's large river systems[J]. Hydrol Process,2013,27(15):2171−2186. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9740
[25]	Bowen AKM,Stevens MHH. Temperature,topography,soil characteristics,and NDVI drive habitat preferences of a shade-tolerant invasive grass[J]. Ecol Evol,2020,10(19):10785−10797. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6735
[26]	Liu F,Wu HY,Zhao YG,Li DC,Yang JL,et al. Mapping high resolution National Soil Information Grids of China[J]. Sci Bull,2022,67(3):328−340. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.10.013
[27]	边喜丽,杨小林,马和平,赵垦田. 藏东南巨柏根系结构特征分析[J]. 西部林业科学,2017,46(4):107−112. Bian XL,Yang XL,Ma HP,Zhao KT. Root structure and specific characteristics of Cupressus gigantea in Southeast Tibet[J]. Journal of West China Forestry Science,2017,46(4):107−112.
[28]	Venter O,Sanderson EW,Magrach A,Allan JR,Beher J, et al. Last of the wild project,version 3 (LWP-3):2009 human footprint,2018 release (version 2018.00)[R]. Palisades:NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC),2018.
[29]	De Marco Júnior P,Nóbrega CC. Evaluating collinearity effects on species distribution models:an approach based on virtual species simulation[J]. PLoS One,2018,13(9):e0202403. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202403
[30]	Raghavan RK,Barker SC,Cobos ME,Barker D,Teo EJM,et al. Potential spatial distribution of the newly introduced long-horned tick,Haemaphysalis longicornis in North America[J]. Sci Rep,2019,9(1):498. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-37205-2
[31]	Jayasinghe SL,Kumar L. Modeling the climate suitability of tea [Camellia sinensis(L.) O. Kuntze] in Sri Lanka in response to current and future climate change scenarios[J]. Agric For Meteorol,2019,272-273:102−117. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.025
[32]	李乾振,李朝晖. 闽东引种巨柏育苗试验初报[J]. 林业科学,2003,39(S1):184−186. Li QZ,Li ZH. Preliminary report on seedling raising experiment for introducing Cupressus gigantea in eastern Fujian Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2003,39(S1):184−186.
[33]	郑诚,温仲明,郭倩,樊勇明,杨玉婷,高飞. 基于MaxEnt模型的延河流域草本植物适生分布与功能性状分析[J]. 生态学报,2021,41(17):6825−6835. Zheng C,Wen ZM,Guo Q,Fan YM,Yang YT,Gao F. Analysis of suitability distribution and functional traits of common herb species in Yanhe River catchment based on MaxEnt model[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2021,41(17):6825−6835.
[34]	吴兴,赵南先,段代祥,陈贻竹. 西藏特有珍稀植物巨柏的研究进展与展望[J]. 福建林业科技,2005,32(3):160−164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-7351.2005.03.043 Wu X,Zhao NX,Duan DX,Chen YZ. Research progress and expectation of Cupressus gigantean,the rare and endemic plant in Xizang[J]. Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology,2005,32(3):160−164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-7351.2005.03.043
[35]	Cobos ME,Peterson AT,Barve N,Osorio-Olvera L. kuenm:an R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent[J]. PeerJ,2019,7:e6281. doi: 10.7717/peerj.6281
[36]	Phillips SJ,Dudík M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J]. Ecography,2008,31(2):161−175. doi: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x
[37]	Chen BR,Zou H,Zhang BY,Zhang XY,Jin XX,et al. Distribution pattern and change prediction of Saposhnikovia divaricata suitable area in China under climate change[J]. Ecol Indic,2022,143:109311. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109311
[38]	Swets JA. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J]. Science,1988,240(4857):1285−1293. doi: 10.1126/science.3287615
[39]	王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,肖启明,戴良英. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J]. 生物多样性,2007,15(4):365−372. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1005-0094.2007.04.005 Wang YS,Xie BY,Wan FH,Xiao QM,Dai LY. Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’ potential distribution models[J]. Biodiversity Science,2007,15(4):365−372. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1005-0094.2007.04.005
[40]	Liu CR,Berry PM,Dawson TP,Pearson RG. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions[J]. Ecography,2005,28(3):385−393. doi: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x
[41]	The Core Writing Team,Pachauri RK,Reisinger A. Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups Ⅰ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Geneva:IPCC,2007:27,83.
[42]	Wang RL,Li Q,He SS,Liu Y,Wang MT,Jiang G. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China[J]. PLoS One,2018,13(2):e0192153. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192153
[43]	Tang CQ,Matsui T,Ohashi H,Dong YF,Momohara A,et al. Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia[J]. Nat Commun,2018,9(1):4488. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-06837-3
[44]	扎西次仁. 西藏巨柏(Cupressus gigantea)的遗传多样性与精油化学成分变异及其保护生物学意义[D]. 上海:复旦大学,2008:71.
[45]	王景升,郑维列,潘刚. 巨柏种子活力与濒危的关系[J]. 林业科学,2005,41(4):37−41. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7488.2005.04.007 Wang JS,Zheng WL,Pan G. Relation between being endangered and seed vigor about Cupressus gigantea in Tibet[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2005,41(4):37−41. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7488.2005.04.007
[46]	徐海燕. 中国柏木属(Cupressus L.)四个物种的遗传多样性研究[D]. 兰州:兰州大学,2011:28.

[1]	Wang Jun-Wei, Chen Yong-Hao, La Qiong. Diversity, distribution patterns, and floristic characteristics of seed plants endemic to Tibet, China[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2023, 41(5): 594-603. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.22298
[2]	Fan Ying-Jie, Liao Yu-Jia, Wang Meng-Zheng, Liu Ling, Song Xiao-Tong, Shao Xiao-Ming. New distribution and distribution prediction of the endemic species Encalypta asiatica J. C. Zhao & L. Li in Tibet, China[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2021, 39(4): 358-366. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2021.40358
[3]	Cao Qian, Gao Qing-Bo, Guo Wan-Jun, Zhang Yu, Wang Zhi-Hua, Ma Xiao-Lei, Zhang Fa-Qi, Chen Shi-Long. Impacts of human activities and environmental factors on potential distribution of Swertia przewalskii Pissjauk., an endemic plant in Qing-Tibetan Plateau, using MaxEnt[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2021, 39(1): 22-31. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2021.10022
[4]	Li Dan-Qi, Hu Wan, Han Cai-Xia, Chen Lu-Dan, Zhang Zhi-Yong, Zhong Ai-Wen, Wei Zong-Xian, Peng Yan-Song. Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas based on MaxEnt model[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2020, 38(6): 743-750. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2020.60743
[5]	Zhou Ya-Dong, Mwangi Brian Njoroge, Ndungu John Mbari, Wang Sheng-Wei, Hu Guang-Wan, Wang Qing-Feng. Simulating potential distribution of Afrocanthium (Rubiaceae) in Kenya based on MaxEnt and its application in the Flora of Kenya[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2020, 38(5): 636-643. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2020.50636
[6]	Shuayib Yusup, Mamtimin Sulayman, Winira Ilghar, Zhang Zhong-Xin. Prediction of potential distribution of Didymodon (Bryophyta, Pottiaceae) in Xinjiang based on the MaxEnt model[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2018, 36(4): 541-553. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2018.40541
[7]	Tao Lian, Yang Wen-Yuan, Xie Hong-Jiang, Pan Cui-Ping, Li Yan-Feng, Li Ju, Huan Yun-Min. Quality evaluation of ‘Golden Delicious’ apple from different ecological regions in Tibet and its response to meteorological factors[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2018, 36(1): 86-93. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2018.10086
[8]	JIANG Yan-Bin, ZHANG Yang-Jian. Distribution of Plant Functional Groups in the Natural Grasslands of Xizang, China[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2016, 34(2): 220-229. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2016.20220
[9]	WANG Wen-Tsai. Two New Species of Urticaceae from Tibet[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2014, 32(1): 24-26. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1142.2014.10024
[10]	YU Jing, TANG Yan-Xue, GUO Shui-Liang. Comparison of the Geographical Distribution of Racomitrium and Grimmia in China Using ArcGis and MaxEnt Software[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2012, 30(5): 443-458. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1142.2012.50443

Supplements (1)

Supplements
Other Related Supplements
- PDF format
  Download(247KB)

Cited By

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (39) PDF downloads (8)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Supplements

Prediction of potential distribution of Cupressus gigantea W. C. Cheng & L. K. Fu in China based on optimized MaxEnt modeling

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Supplements

Other Related Supplements

PDF format

Catalog

Prediction of potential distribution of Cupressus gigantea W. C. Cheng & L. K. Fu in China based on optimized MaxEnt modeling

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Supplements

Other Related Supplements

PDF format

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content